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An Independent Archive · Established 2025
The Manifest Archive
By Jerry
Jerry van der Laan
Author · Chapters

Jerry van der Laan

Jerry van der Laan is an independent analyst and the author of The Manifest Archive. He reconstructs how energy, money and state power interact from public data and primary documents.

Netherlands

The U.S. Army Paid RAND to Find Russia’s Weak Points in 2019. RAND Is Still Grading the War.
№ 1

The U.S. Army Paid RAND to Find Russia’s Weak Points in 2019. RAND Is Still Grading the War.

How the same institution wrote the doctrine, supplied the personnel, and graded its own homework.

Geopolitics May 1, 2026
In 1990, James Baker Told Gorbachev NATO Would Not Move One Inch Eastward.
№ 2

In 1990, James Baker Told Gorbachev NATO Would Not Move One Inch Eastward.

How a defensive alliance built an expansion architecture, and what George Kennan said would happen next.

Geopolitics Apr 30, 2026
Donald Trump Has Been Investigated, Impeached, Indicted, and Convicted. He Is Still President.
№ 3

Donald Trump Has Been Investigated, Impeached, Indicted, and Convicted. He Is Still President.

The architecture of impunity was not built for Trump. It was built before him. He is the first person to use all of it at once, in public.

Surveillance, Tech & Intelligence Apr 29, 2026
The Generals Are Gone. Now What?
№ 4

The Generals Are Gone. Now What?

Trump didn’t just fire military leaders. He dismantled the system that makes American power legible to the world.

Geopolitics Apr 28, 2026
Vietnam Had a RAND Strategy.
№ 5

Vietnam Had a RAND Strategy.

The institution that writes the doctrine, supplies the personnel, and grades its own homework. How RAND learned to hold the framework, and never has to be right.

Geopolitics Apr 27, 2026
Three Mechanisms Break the IMF’s Hormuz Model. All Three Are Already Running.
№ 6

Three Mechanisms Break the IMF’s Hormuz Model. All Three Are Already Running.

Why the standard recovery scenario fails before Hormuz reopens.

Financial Architecture Apr 26, 2026
Iran Never Forgot What Happened to Russia. That Is Why the Islamabad Talks Failed.
№ 7

Iran Never Forgot What Happened to Russia. That Is Why the Islamabad Talks Failed.

The refusal everyone read as stubbornness was memory. Iran spent thirty-five years studying what happened to every country that surrendered its leverage and signed first.

Geopolitics Apr 25, 2026
Russia Named European Drone Factories as Military Targets on April 15.
№ 8

Russia Named European Drone Factories as Military Targets on April 15.

How the escalation ladder got another rung. No one has said where the top is.

Geopolitics Apr 24, 2026
Tesla's Papers Were Declared Worthless in 1943.
№ 9

Tesla's Papers Were Declared Worthless in 1943.

The legend was not made by a suppressed invention. It was made by an absence. A sealed archive at the center of a famous life does not stay empty; it fills with whatever we most want, or fear, to be true.

The Erased Record Apr 23, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz Closed 54 Days Ago.
№ 10

The Strait of Hormuz Closed 54 Days Ago.

This is not a prediction. It is an observation about architecture. The same four structural conditions that converted a recession into a…

Geopolitics Apr 22, 2026
Jeffrey Sachs Left Russia in 1994. The Contracts of That Decade Are Still Running.
№ 11

Jeffrey Sachs Left Russia in 1994. The Contracts of That Decade Are Still Running.

How IMF conditionality and investment treaties turned economic policy into permanent law

Geopolitics Apr 21, 2026
Five Continents. Same Stones. Same Stars. Same Silence.
№ 12

Five Continents. Same Stones. Same Stars. Same Silence.

How the same geometry appears on five continents, and why the question is not being asked

The Track Record Apr 20, 2026